November 2024

Risk-Opportunity Analysis (ROA) is an approach to policy appraisal designed for contexts of uncertainty, diverse interests, and structural change.  Such conditions are frequently present in policymaking on the low carbon transition.  ROA can be used to compare the risks and opportunities of alternative policy options in a way that provides transparent and useful information to the decision-maker.

This draft implementation guidance outlines how to conduct Risk Opportunity Analysis in practice. It is structured around three main elements:

• The dynamic assessment considers how policies are likely to affect processes of change in the economy.
• The multi-dimensional assessment presents possible outcomes in different dimensions of interest to the decision-maker, making trade-offs clearly visible.
• The uncertainty assessment considers how policy outcomes may be affected by critical uncertainties outside the control of the decision-maker.

The guidance is intended for use by government analysts and policymakers, and is being shared in draft form for feedback and refinement. An updated version will be made available upon completion.